Positive Signs in the Housing Market

According to Richard Bove of investment banking firm Ladenburg Thalmann, one of the country's veteran financial analysts, there is a positive dynamic taking shape in the current cycle:

• Bove said he expects “housing prices to stabilize and/or rise (in 2009) after a likely boom in mortgage refinancings as rates fall and loan applications increase.”

• Add in the expected massive economic stimulus package being put together on Capitol Hill with the incoming Obama administration – and there's a good chance we're going to see a gradual transformation of the downward cycle into a slow rebound over the coming several quarters.

• Mortgage rates continue to hover at 50-year lows – 5% and even 4.75% for 30-year mortgages, and still lower for 15- and 20-year mortgage terms.

• There are signs that housing prices are stabilizing in some parts of the country. The latest monthly Federal Housing Finance Agency index found home prices up by 0.6% in the Mountain states and by 0.2% in New England.

• We're all paying a lot less at the gas pump, and sharply discounted prices for retail goods and autos.

• Americans are actually saving again, the national savings rate took a nearly 3% jump last month. That might sound small, but it's hugely important if it is the start of a trend.

Keep your eyes open for the small positive signs that are accumulating out there … because all down cycles tail off and come to an end.

From: http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20090106_realestateoutlook.htm by Kenneth Harney, Realty Times, Jan. 6, 2009

FOMC Emergency!

Early this morning the outlook was gloomy for stocks, with the Dow expected to end the day down 600 or more points on global fears of a U.S. recession. Enter the Fed. For the first time in 7 years, the Fed voted for a non-meeting rate cut. They slashed the overnight rate by 75 basis points to 3.5% and signalled that a further rate cut was likely and could potentially occur at the next meeting, scheduled for just next week. Not only was this the first mid-meeting cut in 7 years, but it was the largest one-time cut in 17 years. The Dow ended the day down a "mere" 130 points.

What does this mean for you? While mortgage rates - long term rates - aren't specifically tied to the Fed Funds rate - a short term rate - we'll still see some effects on the costs of home ownership.

1) Those with adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) due to reset soon will benefit from a slightly lower reset rate. It won't be sufficient to bail out anyone in serious trouble, but it will help them stretch their dollar a little further.

2) Banks dropped their prime rate after the Fed cut, which will benefit consumers with home equity loans, credit card debt, and auto loans.

3) The market has already priced in a rate cut, so mortgage rates are already very low!

4) The rate cut is likely to increase mortgage applications as buyers attempt to find the best rate possible and more people begin to consider home ownership as a possibility.

5) The down side is... don't expect your savings to grow as fast as it was before! Banks lower the interest rates they offer on savings and CDs at the same time they lower the rates at which they lend to you.

Is Now The Time To Buy?

I've gotten this concern very frequently from hesitant buyers. "I don't want to buy now because I'm afraid prices will drop even more in the coming months." Here are two things to consider:

1. Real estate is a long-term investment. If you plan to buy a place and then sell it in a year, then yes, you should be concerned about where prices are heading soon. However, if you are like most buyers and expect to hold onto your property for 3-5 or more years, there are sure to be natural ups and downs to the value of your property anyway. There is nothing you can do about that and you'll NEVER know when the price is at its absolute lowest. Waiting for prices to drop and drop and drop could potentially leave you in a situation where prices suddenly skyrocket, and where does that leave you?

2. Home prices are not the only thing to consider. Mortgage rates change just like home prices change. What if you KNEW that home prices will drop in 6 months? Well, then you might wait 6 months to buy your home. But what if you also KNEW that mortgage rates would rise in 6 months? Then what would you do? For instance, a P&I payment on a mortgage for a $300,000 home at 5.5% interest would be $1703/month. However, if the price of the home FALLS 3% but at the same time, mortgage rates go up 0.5 percentage points to 6%, your monthly P&I payment would be $1744. So, you'd actually be paying MORE per month for a home that cost less.

View this blog from a respected mortgage industry leader for more insight to the mortgage market and where rates might be headed. And this article from NAR will help you understand how the real estate market is predicted to fare this year.